A professor of political science with a history of accurately predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections said either Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.) will win the primary or the Democratic National Committee will face a brokered convention in July.
Allan Lichtman from American University is the co-creator of “The Keys to the White House,” a forecast model used to predict nine previous elections, according to The Independent.
“I think the most likely outcomes are Sanders wins or nobody wins, and for the first time in over 50 years, we actually have a convention nominating the candidate,” he said.
The prediction model also indicated that “it is generally speaking the incumbent’s election to lose,” according to The Independent.
The professor said the model is not designed to forecast primaries, but there are signs that the upcoming Democratic convention could be a brokered one.
A brokered convention could happen if no Democratic candidate wins more than half of the 1,990 pledged delegates by the end of the primary race.
Prediction forecasts by FiveThirtyEight indicate Sanders has the best chance of winning more than half of the pledged delegates, but he has only a 32 percent chance of doing so. The model currently suggests a higher chance, 51 percent, that nobody will receive a majority of delegate votes, according to the FiveThirtyEight.
Lichtman said a brokered convention could result in damage between constituents and representatives of the Democratic Party but none that would limit the chances of the party’s victory in November.
“Internal party fights only count when it is in the party holding the White House,” Lichtman said. “The challenging party can fight all they want, and it has no impact. Look at the bitter battle by the Republicans in 2016 — it was much worse than what is happening with the Democrats this time. They were saying terrible things about each other, and they still won.”
Sanders is currently leading the other candidates with 45 delegates. Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegScaled-back Pride Month poses challenges for fundraising, outreach Biden hopes to pick VP by Aug. 1 It’s as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process MORE holds 25, former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE has 15, Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names MORE (D-Mass.) has eight and Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy KlobucharHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Democrats demand Republican leaders examine election challenges after Georgia voting chaos Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk MORE (D-Minn.) holds seven.
With the South Carolina primary on Saturday, 44 delegates are on the table for candidates. The upcoming March 3 Super Tuesday elections have more than 1,300 delegates eligible up for grabs.
The four-day Democratic National Convention will determine the candidate to take on President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE in the November general election and will be in Milwaukee July 13 to July 16.
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