Democrats are maintaining a 9-point lead over Republicans in generic ballot polling for the House ahead of this year’s midterm elections, according to a poll released Wednesday.
The Quinnipiac University poll found that 49 percent of voters would like to see the Democratic Party win control of the House, while 40 percent would like to see the Republican Party keep control. Another 11 percent remain undecided.
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The Democrats’ advantage in the poll is down 4 points from late January, when they held a double-digit lead over Republicans.
But Wednesday’s poll was more consistent with RealClearPolitics’ average for 2018 generic ballot polling, which has Democrats with a nearly 7-point lead over the GOP.
Democrats need to flip 24 seats in order to take back the House. It’s a tall order, but many political observers are predicting a wave given the party’s advantage on generic ballot polling and recent special election victories in reliably red seats.
It’ll be a much steeper climb for Democrats to regain control of the Senate.
Even though Republicans only hold a slim 51-49 seat majority, Democrats are mostly on defense this cycle and need to protect 10 seats with incumbents up for reelection where President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE won in 2016.
Democrats hold a 7-point lead, 49 percent to 42 percent, when voters are asked which party they would like to see win control of the Senate, according to the Quinnipiac poll. That number is down from previous Quinnipiac surveys, where Democrats held a 14-point lead in generic ballot polling for the Senate.
The poll of 1,333 voters was conducted Feb. 2–5 via live interviews on landlines and cellphones and has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.