LONDON — Forget Brexit: The U.K. Labour party wants to talk about climate change.

At its annual conference in Brighton next week, the policy proposal with the biggest groundswell of support from members is not on the U.K.’s departure from the EU. Rather it is a radical plan put forward by a grassroots group promoting a U.K. version what’s becoming a global green deal rush — including U.S. Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s signature Green New Deal and European Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen’s European Green Deal.

The motion, backed by 128 constituency Labour parties (CLPs) — far more than any other pre-conference grassroots motion — calls for Labour to adopt a highly ambitious target of zero carbon emissions by 2030. That’s well ahead of the Conservative government’s recently-adopted 2050 net zero carbon target — the only EU country with such legislation.

It’s unlikely the radical plan will be adopted in its entirety by the party. But the success of the motion ahead of the conference — where members have the chance to put their views to the party’s political and trade union leaders — could mark a major milestone for the U.K.’s climate movement.

Despite heavy media coverage of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s ambiguous Brexit position, some party insiders predict that the Green New Deal will become the major surprise story of the 2019 conference — such is its ambition and radical implications for the U.K. economy. 

And with an unpredictable general election likely within weeks, it is entirely possible such proposals could soon enter the policy mix for a Labour-led government.

Anything but Brexit

If the Green New Deal motion were adopted as party policy and implemented by a future Labour government, it would put the U.K. far ahead of other leading economies in the global carbon reduction league table. It would also mean “the total transformation of our energy and manufacturing sectors,” said Clare Hymer, co-founder of the grassroots movement.

The text of the motion and accompanying policy documents call for “rapidly phasing out all fossil fuels” — in other words closing gas and coal power stations and huge investment in wind and solar. On transport there is a proposal for free public transport to disincentivize driving, as well as a levy on frequent flyers. Major reforms to manufacturing requiring the cement, steel and chemicals sectors to use “carbon neutral heavy industry technology” are also proposed.

While this means a likely clash between Green New Deal advocates and Labour’s powerful unions, Corbyn is likely to welcome a prominent discussion of anything other than Brexit at the conference.

Corbyn has taken a more equivocal stance on the U.K.’s exit than the leaders of other parties, pledging that a Labour government would pursue its own deal with Brussels and then give the public a choice between it and remaining in the EU in a second referendum.

With the electorate increasingly polarized on the question of the country’s EU departure, the middle course between Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s and Nigel Farage’s clear pro-Brexit stance, and the Liberal Democrats’ position of revoking Article 50 is risky. Labour strategists say they are keen to use the conference to try and shift the national debate on to social, economic and, critically, environmental issues — areas of policy where the party feels it has an advantage.

Rebecca Long-Bailey, the shadow business secretary whose brief includes the party’s climate change policy, will nevertheless face a difficult balancing act between the demands of members — including the pro-Corbyn activist group Momentum, which backs the Green New Deal motion — and the interests of the unions.

“It’s fantastic to see so many different ideas from trade unions and CLPs on how to tackle the climate emergency,” she told POLITICO in a statement responding to the swell of support for the Green New Deal motion.

“Transforming the U.K.’s economy so that it both deals with the climate crisis and delivers good, unionised jobs is now a key priority for the labour movement,” she said, pledging that there would be new policy announcements in this area at the conference.

Carbon reduction race

To satisfy members hungry for radical action, it is likely that a new carbon reduction target will need to be among the package of measures.

Last year’s conference committed the party to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. But that’s no longer very ambitious. The U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has since said net-zero worldwide is needed by 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, and the U.K. government has adopted the 2050 target.

The Labour leadership views 2050 as a “bare minimum,” party officials said. The leadership is sympathetic to arguments that because the U.K. was one of the first nations to industrialize, it should go faster than others in the global decarbonization effort.

Climate change action is also increasingly recognized as a vote-winner. A YouGov survey in June put it third on a list of public concerns, behind only Brexit and health. And POLITICO-Hanbury poll conducted in June and July found that climate had risen up the list of voters concerns in the preceding three weeks, as well as showing a marked increase in support for renewable energy.

Labour in particular wants to outflank the Liberal Democrats, whose leader Jo Swinson this week committed her party to a 2045 net-zero target. The Green Party, also a threat to Labour, already has a 2030 net-zero target.

The Green New Deal motion in its current form may be watered down before it is put to a vote of party members. Any climate change motion that is passed does not automatically become a manifesto policy — although the pressure on the party leadership to adopt successful conference motions is significant.

Labour’s Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell said earlier this year the party is open to aiming for a 2030 target but that the expert advice was that it “isn’t realistic.”

The Green New Deal movement, only six months old, has already become a network of dozens of regional planning committees, coordinated via an online organizing platform by a small national team of directors.

Their suite of measures places a heavy emphasis on state intervention. It calls for a “state-led programme of investment and regulation” to end carbon emissions.

“The Green New Deal we’re pushing for, demands the decarbonization of all parts of our economy,” said Hymer, the movement co-founder, “including the total transformation of our energy and manufacturing sectors. But this doesn’t have to mean closures and redundancies — it should mean transforming these sectors and redeploying workers.”

Hymer acknowledged that unions with members in fossil fuels industries would be concerned about the Green New Deal agenda, but insisted the mood was changing within the union movement.

“For too long climate campaigns have been viewed with mistrust by trade unions because they have largely sidelined the labour movement,” she said via email. “I think in the space of six months since the launch of the campaign we’ve really helped change that by putting workers at the forefront of what a transition to a green economy will look like.”

One union, the 200,000-member Communication Workers Union, has backed the motion. The Trade Union Congress last week voted at its own conference to support Friday’s global school strike for climate action — expected to be one of the biggest yet — and taking place within 24 hours of the start of the Labour conference.

Unite, the U.K.’s biggest union, declined to comment ahead of the conference.